WSI Energycast Outlook Calls for Warm Fall in Northeast
WSI and ESAI issue an update of special interest to energy traders
Andover, MA, August 26, 2008 - WSI Corporation issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming three-month period (September-November) on August 19. WSI expects the upcoming three-month period to average cooler than normal in parts of the Southeast and in the major population centers along the Pacific Coast, with warmer-than-normal temperatures elsewhere, especially in the Northeast. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).
The monthly breakdown follows:
In September:
- Northeast - Warmer than normal
- Southeast - Warmer than normal
- N Central - Cooler than normal, except WI/MI
- S Central - Cooler than normal, except east TX
- Northwest - Cooler than normal
- Southwest - Cooler than normal
Expected Market Impact (provided by ESAI)
The WSI September forecast indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures in
the Northeast and Southeast with cooler temperatures prevalent throughout
most of the central and western U.S. Injections to gas storage are likely
to be slightly higher than normal due to the lower probability of late-season
heat in most areas. Cooler temperatures in September should moderate power
prices except in the Northeast where warmer temperature expectations would
be moderately bullish for power prices.
In October:
- Northeast - Warmer than normal
- Southeast - Warmer than normal
- N Central - Warmer than normal
- S Central - Warmer than normal
- Northwest - Cooler than normal
- Southwest - Warmer than normal, except CA
Expected Market Impact (provided by
ESAI)
The WSI October forecast indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures in
most areas. especially the Northeast and North Central regions. Cooler
temperatures are expected in the western coastal region. Injections to
gas storage are likely to be above normal as warmer temperatures delay
the need for heating. Power prices in most regions will be more dependent
upon generator planned maintenance programs as loads will be moderate
due to shoulder season temperatures.
In November:
- Northeast - Warmer than normal
- Southeast - Cooler than normal
- N Central - Warmer than normal
- S Central - Warmer than normal, except east TX
- Northwest - Cooler than normal, except ID/MT/WY
- Southwest - Warmer than normal, except CA
Expected Market Impact (provided by
ESAI)
The WSI November forecast indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures in
the Northeast and North Central regions with cooler temperatures in the
Southeast and in the Northwest. Natural gas demand for early-season heating
should be below average due to warmer temperature expectations across
the northern tier of the country. Power prices in most regions will tend
to be related to generator planned maintenance programs through late November.
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, “We expect a return to warmer-than-normal temperatures in September across the eastern US as the cool and wet pattern of recent weeks finally relents. The strongest current climate signal is the very cold ocean temperatures in the north Pacific, and this cold water should help to drive the general atmospheric pattern this fall towards a very warm regime in the northeastern US. There is still significant uncertainty regarding the evolution of El Nino/La Nina, although the recent emergence of very cold subsurface water in the equatorial tropical Pacific would seem to reduce the chances of a transition to El Nino later this fall.”
WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, issues its seasonal outlook twice-monthly. The next new forecast package (for October-December) issued on September 23.
About WSI Corporation
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions
for professionals in the energy, aviation, and media markets, and multiple federal
and state government agencies. WSI is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts
with offices in Birmingham, England, and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Landmark
Communications. More information about WSI can be found at www.wsi.com.
About ESAI Corporation
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated
to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing information about world-wide energy
markets. Tapping the talents of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients
with unparalleled insight into where the markets have been and where they are
headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy prices in the oil,
natural gas, and energy markets. For more information on ESAI services visit
www.esai.com
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