WSI Energycast Seasonal Tropical Update Reduces Forecast Numbers, But Still Expects Active Season
WSI issues an update of special interest to energy traders
Andover, MA, July 25, 2007 - WSI Corporation issued an update to their 2007 seasonal tropical outlook on July 17. WSI now expects the tropical season to have 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). This is a reduction from our previous forecast numbers of 15/8/4. These numbers are still larger than the long-term averages of 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes, and also larger than the numbers from 2006. The main drivers of the expected active season are (1) a continuation of the warm tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures and (2) a relatively benign vertical wind shear environment due to a lack of an El Nino event.
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, “The tropical Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies have remained cool into July, relative to recent years, and now compare best to 2000 and 2002. Because the ocean temperatures have not yet rebounded from the significant drop in late spring, we have decided to reduce our forecast numbers slightly. However, both 2000 and 2002 were active seasons, and we continue to expect an active season, relative to both 2006 and long-term averages. Finally, our seasonal temperature forecast is now less bullish on late-summer heat in the Southeast, with the subtropical ridge migrating farther to the north than originally expected. Because of this, we feel that the general threat to the western Gulf is reduced slightly, with a corresponding increase in the threat to the eastern Gulf and Florida.”
WSI has been providing industry-leading seasonal forecasts for energy traders since 2000. The next full seasonal forecast package, which will include both an update on the current tropical season as well as expectations for late-summer and fall temperatures, will be issued on August 14.
About WSI Corporation
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions
for professionals in the energy, aviation, and media markets, and multiple federal
and state government agencies. WSI is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts
with offices in Birmingham, England, and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Landmark
Communications. More information about WSI can be found at www.wsi.com.
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