WSI Issues July Update for 2009 Hurricane Season
Weather Authority's Tropical Forecast Continues to Call for a Relatively Quiet Season
Andover, MA, July 21, 2009 — WSI Corporation’s updated 2009 hurricane season forecast now calls for 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater), a slight reduction from the previous forecast of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.
The forecast numbers were reduced due to the unfavorable
wind shear environment across the tropical Atlantic, which is driven by
the recent development of a new El Nino event in the tropical Pacific.
The impacts of the El Nino event have emerged more quickly than originally
expected, resulting in reduced expectations for the upcoming season. The
2009 forecast numbers remain quite close to the long-term (1950-2008)
average of 9.8 named storms, 6.0 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes,
but are significantly lower than the numbers from the relatively active
seasons of the past 15 years.
The 2009 WSI tropical forecast comes on the heels of a very successful
2008 forecast. The WSI December forecast values of 14 named storms, 7
hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes were slightly smaller than the final
observed 2008 values of 16/8/5. The subsequent updates improved the forecast
further, as the April 2008 updated forecast values of 14 named storms,
8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes were the most accurate amongst
the publicly-available forecasts issued last spring.
“Ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain
quite cool relative to the temperatures during the last 15, more tropically
active years," said WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford. “Further,
the new El Nino event continues to strengthen, resulting in an unfavorable
wind shear environment across the tropical Atlantic. The early development
of this enhanced wind shear along with the relatively cool tropical Atlantic
temperatures will almost certainly result in a less-active season then
last year, and could potentially result in an unusually quiet season.
We have reduced our forecast numbers slightly to account for the impacts
of the new El Nino event, and the fact there have been no early-season
storms through mid-July.”
Energy and agricultural traders, insurance professionals and risk managers
look to WSI for accurate, timely weather information around the clock
and across the globe. The next seasonal forecast update, which will include
forecasts for fall temperatures, will be issued on August 26. The next
update on the 2009 hurricane season will be issued on August 25.
About WSI Corporation
WSI is the most trusted source of weather information across the globe. Top
insurance, risk management companies and financial institutions, worldwide,
trust WSI to supply them with easy-to-use, timely and expert weather guidance
to help anticipate market volatility, mitigate risk and make critical decisions
with confidence. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered
in Andover, Massachusetts, with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather
Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the
private equity firms, The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. For more information,
please visit us on the web at www.wsi.com
or call us at 877.WSI.CORP or +44.121.233.7600.
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