WSI Energycast Outlook Calls for Generally Mild April Nationwide; Warm Summer Eastern US
WSI and ESAI issue an update of special interest to energy traders
Andover, MA, March 25, 2008 - WSI Corporation issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming three-month period (April-June) on March 18, along with an "early look" at the upcoming summer. WSI expects the upcoming three-month period to average cooler than normal in the Northwest and Pacific Coast states, with warmer-than-normal temperatures elsewhere. For the upcoming summer, early indications are that above-normal temperatures will be dominant across the eastern US, with near to slightly below-normal temperatures in the western US. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).
The monthly breakdown follows:
In April:
- Northeast - Warmer than normal, except ME
- Southeast - Warmer than normal
- N Central - Warmer than normal
- S Central - Warmer than normal
- Northwest - Warmer than normal
- Southwest - Warmer than normal, except CA
Expected Market Impact (provided by ESAI)
The WSI April forecast indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures in all
regions except California and Maine. Warmer temperatures in April should
provide for lower natural gas demand than would be expected during the
last two to three weeks of the heating season. Seasonal demand in April
is already low and the impact on supply and market price is diminished.
In April, electric loads will reflect shoulder season demand and prices
will be influenced more by planned maintenance schedules than by changes
in the temperature expectations.
In May:
- Northeast - Cooler than normal
- Southeast - Warmer than normal
- N Central - Cooler than normal
- S Central - Warmer than normal
- Northwest - Cooler than normal
- Southwest - Warmer than normal, except CA
Expected Market Impact (provided by
ESAI)
The WSI May forecast indicates cooler-than-normal temperatures across
the northern regions and California. Low seasonal natural gas demand will
be offset by increased demand from the power sector due to the increased
operation of gas plants during the nuclear and coal plant outages. In
May, electric loads will reflect shoulder season demand but prices will
be influenced mostly by the higher costs of dispatch during planned maintenance
schedules.
In June:
- Northeast - Warmer than normal
- Southeast - Warmer than normal
- N Central - Cooler than normal
- S Central - Cooler than normal, except TX
- Northwest - Cooler than normal, except WA
- Southwest - Warmer than normal, except CA
Expected Market Impact (provided by
ESAI)
The WSI June forecast indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures in New
York and New England, but generally cooler temperatures in other regions.
Generally cooler weather will dampen gas demand from the power sector
and should lead to higher-than-average natural gas injections to storage.
The generally cooler outlook lessens the probability of early season heat
events, except in New York and New England.
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, “The impacts of the ongoing strong La Nina event will likely result in a warm spring across most of southern US, with a warm April followed by a cool May across the North. As we approach summer, it appears that the southern warmth will expand eastward and northward. Current indications are that summer will be warmer-than-normal in the eastern US, with cooler-than-normal temperatures confined to the western US.”
WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, issues its seasonal outlook twice-monthly. An update to the current forecast will be issued to clients on March 27, with the next new forecast package (for May-July) issued on April 16. The April 16 forecast package will also include an official summer (June-August) forecast.
About WSI Corporation
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions
for professionals in the energy, aviation, and media markets, and multiple federal
and state government agencies. WSI is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts
with offices in Birmingham, England, and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Landmark
Communications. More information about WSI can be found at www.wsi.com.
About ESAI Corporation
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated
to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing information about world-wide energy
markets. Tapping the talents of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients
with unparalleled insight into where the markets have been and where they are
headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy prices in the oil,
natural gas, and energy markets. For more information on ESAI services visit
www.esai.com
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