WSI Energycast Outlook Calls for Cool March/April in the Northeast; Warm Summer Eastern US
WSI and ESAI issue an update of special interest to energy traders
Andover, MA, February 26, 2008 — WSI Corporation issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming three-month period (March-May) on February 19, along with an “early look” at the upcoming summer. WSI expects the upcoming three-month period to be cooler than normal in the Northeast and north and west of a line from San Diego to Minneapolis, with warmer-than-normal temperatures elsewhere. For the upcoming summer, early indications are that above-normal temperatures will be dominant across the eastern US, with near to slightly below-normal temperatures in the western US. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).
The monthly breakdown for the upcoming spring season follows:
In March:
- Northeast – Cooler than normal
- Southeast – Warmer than normal
- N Central – Cooler than normal
- S Central – Warmer than normal
- Northwest – Cooler than normal
- Southwest – Cooler than normal, except NM
Expected Market Impact (provided by ESAI) t
The WSI March forecast indicates colder-than-normal temperatures across most of the country, especially across the northern tier. Above-normal demand for natural gas should come as a result of colder March temperatures in the Northern regions. This will increase gas withdrawals from inventory towards the end of the season and will be somewhat bullish for prices. Inventories will be more than adequate to finish the heating season, finishing above the five year average.
In April:
- Northeast – Cooler than normal
- Southeast – Warmer than normal
- N Central – Warmer than normal
- S Central – Warmer than normal
- Northwest – Cooler than normal
- Southwest – Warmer than normal, except CA
Expected Market Impact (provided by ESAI)
The WSI April forecast indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Central and Southern regions with cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast and Northwest. Slightly lower natural gas demand would be expected during the last two to three weeks of the heating season, however, seasonal demand in April is already low and the impact on supply and market price is diminished. In April, electric loads will reflect shoulder season demand and prices will be influenced less by temperature fluctuations than by planned maintenance schedules.
In May:
- Northeast – Cooler than normal
- Southeast – Warmer than normal
- N Central – Cooler than normal, except WI/MI
- S Central – Warmer than normal
- Northwest – Cooler than normal
- Southwest – Warmer than normal, except CA
Expected Market Impact (provided by ESAI)
The WSI May forecast indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Southern regions and cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Northern regions. Low seasonal natural gas demand will be offset by increased demand from the power sector as nuclear and coal plant outages require increased operation of gas plants. In May, electric loads will reflect shoulder season demand but prices will be influenced mostly by planned maintenance schedules.
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, “The impacts of the ongoing strong La Nina event will likely result in a cool spring across much of the northern US, and a warm spring across the south-central and southeastern states. As we approach summer, it appears that the southern warmth will expand eastward and northward. Current indications are that summer will be warmer-than-normal in the eastern US, with cooler-than-normal temperatures confined to the western US.”
WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, issues its seasonal outlook twice-monthly. An update to the current forecast will be issued to clients on February 28, with the next new forecast package (for April-June) issued on March 18. The March 18 forecast package will also include an updated summer outlook.
About WSI Corporation
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions
for professionals in the energy, aviation, and media markets, and multiple federal
and state government agencies. WSI is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts
with offices in Birmingham, England, and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Landmark
Communications. More information about WSI can be found at www.wsi.com.
About ESAI Corporation
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated
to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing information about world-wide energy
markets. Tapping the talents of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients
with unparalleled insight into where the markets have been and where they are
headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy prices in the oil,
natural gas, and energy markets. For more information on ESAI services visit
www.esai.com
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